Do you think a monkey throwing darts at a stock chart would outperform an MBA financial analyst earning $250K?
Answer:
Yes I do.
One only need look at the experiment done over several years where reporters from the Wall Street Journal picked four stocks per quarter and compared them to stocks picked by top analysts. On average, the randomly picked stocks did as well as the stock picks.
When I taught at The Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania, I had each student pick one stock that he thought would do well during the term. I then picked 30 stocks randomly (I did this in front of my students, so they knew it was truly random). My random portfolio tracked the major indices almost perfectly -- and outperformed the portfolios chosen by my students in five sections of the class.
Needless to say, many of my students are now analysts at top I-Banks making six figures. I only hope they learned something from the experiment.
The Wall St. Journal does this very test every once in a while and the monkey usually does quite well.
I wouldn't doubt it. There is alot of corruption on wall street. What the heck, there is an elephant that predicts the Super Bowl winner.
I've heard that is true.
There about the same, the only thing the monkey would not try to sell you his dart pick
I heard the monkey wins 80% of the time. Someone actually tracks that.
Randomly choose six stocks, and see if you can beat the market.
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This has actually been done before. They tracked the monkey's performance against the top 10 fund managers at the time. The monkey's results: it outperformed 9 of the 10 top fund managers, and the 1 fund manager that did better, did so by 2%.
The moral of the story, the so-called experts are only experts because we think they are. People who do their own research and pick their own stocks consistently outperform the best fund managers.
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